A guide to what never changes.
Use this to have confidence in the future.
Hanging by a thread -> we have no idea where we are going.
Events compound in unfathomable ways: chance and accident.
Risk is what you don’t see: surprises are what really matter.
Invest is preparedness, not prediction. More cash, less debt.
Expectations and Reality: happiness = low expectations.
Don’t worry about keeping up with the Jones. Much more equal in the 1950s.
Don’t keep moving the goalposts.
Wild Minds: ex. Elon Musk -> thing in the wild positives and negative aligns.
Wild Numbers: people want certainly (yes or no) not occurring (%’s).
Once-in-a-lifetime events happen daily because of (a) Billions of people and (b) media.
If you don’t want negative news, focus on your local paper.
Stories more powerful than statistics. People are busy and emotional.
The world is driven by forces that cannot be measured.
The world is full of absurdity, confusion, messy relationships, and imperfect people.
Stability is destabilizing. Ex. lack of recession plants seeds for resources.
Wet year -> high vegetation growth -> dries out -> fire risk.
A good idea on steroids becomes a terrible idea. Things have a natural scale.
Stress creates good ideas. Abundance/wealth creates low productivity.
Good news comes from compounding, which takes time. 1.4%/yr = 2x in 50 years.
Bad news comes from a loss in confidence/catastrophic error -> instantaneous.
Tiny things compound into extraordinary things.
Progress requires optimism and pessimism to coexist.
But the balance is tough.
Survive term problems to stick around to enjoy long-term growth.
Advantage of being a little imperfect and underemployed (have time).
Benefits of taking a walk to think. Focus on big picture.
It’s supposed to be hard. Must be willing to endure pain = tax.
Most competitive advantages eventually die.
Evolution encourages growth and then punishes you for it.
It always feels like we’re falling behind, and it’s easy to discount the potential of new tech.
Innovations take 10-20 years to become useful.
Inventors build off each other and innovate innovations.
Everything is sales. It’s easiest to convince people you are special if they don’t know you well.
Incentives: The most powerful force in the world.
Unsustainable trends can last long because of social/financial incentives.
Nothing is more persuasive than what you’ve experienced firsthand.
Can’t predict what someone will feel/do until “it” happens.
Long term is hard, but more lucrative than people assume.
Long term = many short terms you have to put up with.
Keep a flexible end date.
Permanent info is in books. It compounds over time.
Expiring info is in the news. Easier to understand using permanent info.
Complexity sells better than simplicity.
Complexity can cloud the core principles.
Wounds heal, scares last.
Hard-core stress experiences leave a scar.
You assume it will happen again.
Disclaimer: These are notes I created from reading the book. This is not completely comprehensive and may include errors and typos. No guarantee is provided as to the accuracy of the information. It is provided for educational purposes only.